Team Mirai's Forecast Market

https://gyazo.com/c232d0ce22c9fccac2a9433b5bfe98d7

Why use play money?

Why Use Play Money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Mana (Ṁ) is the play money currency used to bet on manifolds. It cannot be exchanged for cash. All users start with Rs. 1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

With Play Money, it is much easier for anyone in the world to start forecasting without risk. It also means more freedom to create and bet on all kinds of questions.

I see. So it's not gambling because there is no cash value.

Emotion Log

When I saw the 13% listed, I felt compelled to "support" the project.

I didn't think it was rational behavior to plunk down all the 1000 mana I received at the start of my account to "support" them.

That's not a "prediction."

If you tell Team Mirai officials that this is being done, it is likely to swing to the YES side by those who are "cheering" as well!

If you send out a message on social media that this is being done, many people are likely to "cheer" as well!

After all, that's a popularity contest, not a prediction market.

If we think about it based on the current "how it is" rather than "how the system should be," the negative value of losing "1000 mana given for free" is almost negligible, so the benefit of increasing the expected value by plunging 1000 mana into the system is greater, isn't it?

Create an account to shove 1000 mana into it.

https://gyazo.com/8d4d3a9369505bcbf7e828314602210a

You put 50 mana in, you get 337 mana back.

Oh well, the odds are changing because of the swing to NO.

617 for 100, 1675 for 400.

It's going down gradually, because the odds change depending on my purchases.

When I tried to put more in, he said, "Really?" I was told.

It's more fun to put in a little at a time than to put in 1,000 and not be able to take action in the future.

I only put in 100.

https://gyazo.com/7a14d9970b41ee6276677df1c54cd4df

With this purchase, it went up to 20%.

It's like a stock that has too little liquidity to move in price with your trades.

I bought another one.

https://gyazo.com/b16667759bc02e4c08826218432bd9bf

way of walking (e.g. in martial arts, etc.)

The first 100 mana yielded a share of 617 and the second 100 mana yielded a share of 442.

https://gyazo.com/934b77250917db6db5a7438d9f61d9d1

What happens if I sell here?

https://gyazo.com/07a329c6a18de44c8b1cbf70c1250361

hmm

(I misinterpreted this as "what the heck, I can sell" and did "then I'll buy a lot while it's cheap", but this is not selling, it's just holding both positions, so the mana is locked and won't come back until the end.)

Currently, just one new account has fluctuated from 30% to 60% just by plunking down the coins they get when they create an account, so I'm not going to have faith in the "predictions" until we get more people.

Apparently, $5 for 500 mana.

You could play distort the prediction market.

I tend to assume that everyone feels the same value for cash, but I still feel that when it's game coins that can't be converted to cash, it's money that is spent for the experience of playing the game and doesn't need to come back.

What's that? Can you still sell?

https://gyazo.com/289b6ed8e83f62ed82cb48f54f0c22be

https://gyazo.com/49118f9a075ef078b1d45fc8ed7afa4f

https://gyazo.com/a71c5309bcdeb1fa4c9d27f6d351a1a7

Ah, I can SELL, and the mana is coming back.

But I'd like to SELL the NO position, but I don't know where that leads.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqoOnbJWEAAlxTB?format=jpg&name=small#.png

https://gyazo.com/1d2c995b2b1a96c2b69c8738d609b8d4

Tokens are not consumed when limit orders are placed.

It would be consumed when actually purchased.

2025-05-12

https://gyazo.com/9c5126dddec818a637203ce64402fbbd

be amused

Aww, that's hilarious!

By selling first, you lock in a profit, while the unrealized profit of those who are holding shrinks as the price drops due to the sale.

I'll just buy the cheapest part of the price drop caused by this sale.

https://gyazo.com/6a0148b2befd194af0f1180792dbc014

You can place a limit order with a token you don't have and paint a picture of a buying advantage w

W did on the Yes side on a larger scale what the No side originally did.

I don't like the specification that the order is cancelled if there aren't enough tokens when the order is placed.

In other words, you can place any number of large limit orders with no risk, making the quote information meaningless.

If you don't have enough tokens, you should be able to automatically debit your credit card to pay for the W.

When I think of simply maximizing money, it is better to sell now what I bought at 16% to fix the profit of unrealized profit, but that is to own the tokens invested by people who bought with the desire to support Mr. Anno, so it is a delicate feeling when considering social capital outside the market and other factors. It's not a pure prediction market when these feelings arise.

First of all, it should be anonymous to reduce the impact on social capital, and you should be able to bet so much money that you can't care about others and get twitchy (...)

I thought that being able to SELL as well as BUY YES/NO is a bad design because it attracts "people who are not interested in the final YES/NO but want to profit from short-term price movements".

After a while, I thought those people might be useful to increase liquidity.

I've been trying to think of a way to win this, but the benefits of disinformation are too great.

That's why there are so many fakes.

https://gyazo.com/7caf3815e38aeacd8c478f290a4e8c20

interesting

The timing of this the other day was that bluemo made a profit by selling at a high price, while the drop in price caused a lot of damage to me, who had a position in the market.

https://gyazo.com/6aa2e64d3de5521e5235751e6ca24535

Then I picked up the low and the price returned to its pre-drop level, which increased my unrealized profit to 1000, and in the process, bluemo's profit did not increase, indicating that he did not have a position.

https://gyazo.com/bf42b19a576b7c030ff052ae99fc1f84

Since the limit price is soaked to 69% and 70%, it's hard to move the price in either direction, since it would trigger the opposite buyers.

https://gyazo.com/98a9d438bfb330f968fe972cc06fc015

It's funny(?). I'll buy up to 70%.

https://gyazo.com/01b7409558bbdfc054107e0e5f3114ec

Now it's going to be a power struggle to see which way to push this contacting board.

2025-05-15

I want to buy it but I don't have the coins because it's too good to waste because the prediction market is not reacting to the people's democratic zeal and people are flowing to Team Mirai.

https://gyazo.com/82d33bac6f3fb0608a6e9331c9a80819

You can borrow and bet!

https://gyazo.com/89b354ea0440f3922e0c48a712658221

Is there a way to make questions and get bonuses?

https://gyazo.com/a90a3fd693d5fbbec43d3b1f79d882d7

interesting

I tried to make a question and get 100M.

https://gyazo.com/5af6a447057c67e55b50883582369ae8

You need 100M to make it!

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2025-07-23

taka: I wrote this article because I have learned a lot as a result of making a market forecast on my own regarding Team Mirai's bid for a seat in the House. As a result, I thought that the market forecast is a good predictor of reality and can be used as a source of information. I wrote about the future of information finance, so if you are getting tired of "Web 3," please take a look!

Jun Ito (Eddie): ↑Great. It was very interesting.

taka:I think I heard something about not being able to mention it in a big way, like it might hit some kind of popularity contest, but I'm not sure lol.

Shinta Nakayama (tokoroten): I wonder why the forecasting market was hot for a while, then went downhill, and now is blooming once again.

In-house tools -> Unless you are smart guys like Google or a very large company like Wal-Mart, you can't get enough people to participate and the cost of operation is too high and it will kill you.

I think it's a situation of revival once again combined with cryptocurrencies.

nishio: 2015: Birth of Ethereum

taka: I feel that Oracle and Google are doing the in-house forecasting market, aren't they?

But I think that with the actual release of Ethereum & the much lower gas prices (this has been a few years), the decentralized prediction market is finally starting to turn around.

In fact, in the U.S. presidential election, the trump vs. harris polymarket has circulated about 500 billion yen equivalent in USDC (stable coins corresponding to the U.S. dollar).

nishio.icon

Implementation costs for the external forecasting market were too high.

Internal forecasting market lacks diversity of people OR does not reach a sufficient number of people (in terms of volume, diversity)

No matter how successful the internal forecasting market is, that know-how is not distributed.

Shinta Nakayama (tokoroten)

The money-makers guarantee liquidity, the price movements create interest, and the market size snowballs.

I felt narratives like this.

taka:

That is exactly how I feel. I personally believe that hedge funds and others are getting into the prediction market, especially in the sense that you can expect a lot of expectation if you are convinced that you hold the EDGE.

However, I wrote this article slightly before, so I would think it could be written a little more nicely now.

Incidentally, I was frustrated when I tried to put in an all-out bid when the election was assured (when the party requirements were still unclear), but the market was closed.

nishio: this is a weakness in the prediction market that Taka misunderstood the party requirement (vulnerability of the individual judging the end result).

taka: Since you wrote it here, I'll answer in my own way.

I wonder if there is a way to make the oracle (delivering the results to the market) something we can manage with a high degree of freedom.

With Polymarket, there's an on-chain oracle called UMA.

There are several other oracles, but fundamentally, they're designed to feel like poker, where you're buying and selling more and more.

And then there are some places that implement challenges (objections) in a sort of decentralized court.

With manifold, it seems that "market maker = resolver", not assuming objection. In this experiment, I would have laughed it off, but I think it is necessary to discuss the design of the mechanism in this area.

In the meantime, the crypto people have already pioneered it, so I guess it's like which one to choose + how easy to make it.

nishio:

I thought one aspect that wasn't written down was the layer of gaining attention to the market itself.

I had a meta-incentive to spread it early on because I had a meta-incentive to get attention if the number was higher than 50%, but I stopped spreading it in the middle and just forgot about it. w

taka

How about this?

More liquidity means more suckers (from those who are convinced of the outcome), so maybe it's better to spread the word in a way?

Consider a situation where there is an incentive not to spread the word.

I don't think so?

nishio Winning in the real world is more beneficial than winning in the market, when the intermediate state of the market affects the real world.

PS: If it had been, say, 80% on, say, the day of the announcement, I would definitely have tweeted, "The prediction market is also predicting the formation of a national political party!" I would have tweeted

taka Ah, so that's what you mean by attention.

tokoroten:

I don't care what you say, but there's only one forecasting market book for 2013, and there's no follow-up.

I am beginning to feel that the lack of a coherent Japanese-language resource on the contemporary forecasting market is rather problematic.

I agree, but I'm stuck with knowledge that is over 10 years old.

Manifold, I'd like to play some more.

TakateTomoki

It was really interesting to actually participate.

Thank you, Taka.

It was the type of concept that you don't understand until you try it.

It was especially funny when I said to myself, "I'm betting on it, so I'm going to do my best to develop it.

This is interesting, the action is prompted by having a buy position

Reverse pattern of [People who take an anti-position when they see something they don't understand.

tokoroten

Even on the last day, I couldn't make the decision to buy at an amount greater than 50%, only to place a limit order below 50%.

The prediction market was interesting, including this own value judgment.

taka: I think this all depends on whether you end up looking at charts or reality. If you are sure, it's cheap no matter how much you buy.

tokoroten: I'm taking a position of support by being in DD2030, so I'm intentionally not a supporter to maintain a neutral position, so I didn't know the ins and outs!

taka:

Insiders will do best to think, "You guys don't get it," and just buy.

And if you lose, it just means you didn't have enough EDGE.

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